Strasbourg Alsace vs Vallecano
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 63% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
63%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
3 contracts
Closes
Jun 4, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Strasbourg Alsace vs Vallecano” vs “Crystal Palace vs Shakhtar: Crystal Palace”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Strasbourg Alsace vs Vallecano
Cluster 2
Crystal Palace vs Shakhtar: Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace vs Shakhtar: Crystal Palace
KXUECLADVANCE-26MAY07CRYSHA-CRY
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Strasbourg Alsace has a 63% chance of winning against Vallecano in an upcoming match. The elevated probability likely reflects Strasbourg's recent form, home advantage, or historical head-to-head record against Vallecano. The key factors driving this level are team performance trends, injury status of key players, and any recent managerial or squad changes. The match result will directly resolve this contract when the game concludes. Factors that could shift the probability include lineup announcements, weather conditions at kickoff, or late-breaking news about player availability. The low trading volume across contracts suggests limited recent market activity, which may mean the current prices haven't adjusted to the most recent developments.
- ›Strasbourg's current league position and recent match results (wins/losses/draws in last 5-10 games)
- ›Vallecano's away record and performance against comparable opponents this season
- ›Availability of key players for both teams, including confirmed injuries or suspensions
- ›Historical head-to-head record between the two clubs
- ›Home/away performance differential and venue factors that favor one team
What moved the line
- May 7Vallecano↑3pp55→58¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 20 h ago.