Strasbourg Alsace wins by over 2.5 goals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$689
6 contracts
Closes
May 21, 2026
13 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Strasbourg Alsace wins by over” vs “Crystal Palace wins by over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Strasbourg Alsace wins by over
Cluster 2
Crystal Palace wins by over
Cluster 3
Vallecano wins by over 1.5 goals
Vallecano wins by over 1.5 goals?: Vallecano wins by over 1.5 goals
KXUECLSPREAD-26MAY07RCSRVC-RVC1
Cluster 4
Shakhtar wins by over 1.5 goals
Shakhtar wins by over 1.5 goals?: Shakhtar wins by over 1.5 goals
KXUECLSPREAD-26MAY07CRYSHA-SHA1
What moved the line
- May 7Vallecano wins by over 1.5 goals↑3pp4→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Crystal Palace wins by over 1.5 goals↓3pp36→33¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 20 h ago.