Vallecano at Strasbourg Alsace
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 43% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
43%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
8 contracts
Closes
May 21, 2026
13 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Shakhtar at Crystal Palace: Totals: Over” vs “Vallecano at Strasbourg Alsace: Totals: Over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Shakhtar at Crystal Palace: Totals: Over
Shakhtar at Crystal Palace: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXUECLTOTAL-26MAY07CRYSHA-1
Shakhtar at Crystal Palace: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXUECLTOTAL-26MAY07CRYSHA-4
Shakhtar at Crystal Palace: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXUECLTOTAL-26MAY07CRYSHA-2
Shakhtar at Crystal Palace: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXUECLTOTAL-26MAY07CRYSHA-3
Cluster 2
Vallecano at Strasbourg Alsace: Totals: Over
Vallecano at Strasbourg Alsace: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXUECLTOTAL-26MAY07RCSRVC-2
Vallecano at Strasbourg Alsace: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXUECLTOTAL-26MAY07RCSRVC-3
Vallecano at Strasbourg Alsace: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXUECLTOTAL-26MAY07RCSRVC-1
Vallecano at Strasbourg Alsace: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXUECLTOTAL-26MAY07RCSRVC-4
What moved the line
- May 7Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↓8pp75→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored↓3pp28→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 20 h ago.