UEFA Champions League

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents the probability that a single entity (currently leading at 50%) will win the 2026 UEFA Champions League tournament. The market reflects genuine uncertainty, with the top contender's price driven by Bayern Munich and PSG both trading at 32 cents as potential winners, while Atlético Madrid shows meaningful backing across both winner and finalist contracts. Arsenal's high price (71 cents) as a finalist but low price (absent from winner markets) suggests traders see them as a likely finalist but underdog champion. The main drivers are squad composition for the 2025-26 season, injury status of key players, and managerial stability entering the campaign. The 2026 competition runs January through June, with the final scheduled for May 31, 2026. Early qualifier draws and group stage results through March 2026 will provide the first real test of these valuations, as pre-season tournaments and transfer windows resolve more information about team strength.

• ›Bayern Munich and PSG both trade at 32¢ as winners, suggesting roughly equal perceived probability despite different recent European performance
• ›Arsenal's 71¢ finalist price versus near-zero winner price indicates markets see them as likely semifinalists but significant underdogs to win the title
• ›Atlético Madrid finalist contract (30¢) trades at premium to winner contract (9¢), suggesting strong defensive setup and knockout viability but lower attacking projection
• ›Trading volume concentrates heavily on Bayern winner (73k 24h vol) and Arsenal finalist (28k 24h vol), showing retail participation drives price but may lack institutional depth
• ›Pre-season transfers, injury developments, and confirmed squads for 2025-26 season remain unresolved and could shift probabilities materially before competition starts

What moved the line

• May 7Most Red Cards: Mikel Merino↓49pp50→1¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Most Assists: Michael Olise↓48pp53→5¢ · Polymarket
• May 2Most Red Cards: Mikel Merino↑47pp3→50¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Most Red Cards: Robert Andrich↓45pp48→3¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Most Assists: Vinícius Júnior↑42pp39→81¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds