UEFA Women’s UCL
Leader sits at 69% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Barcelona
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Winner: OL Lyonnes
Spread
61pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
UEFA Women’s UCL: Winner
UEFA Women’s UCL: Winner: Barcelona
0x75a458…1d58
UEFA Women’s UCL: Winner: OL Lyonnes
0x0ddf06…4975
Analysis
Barcelona currently has a 45% estimated probability of winning the 2026 UEFA Women's Champions League, reflecting market participants' assessment of their likelihood relative to competing teams. This probability reflects Barcelona's recent form, squad depth, and European experience, though it indicates meaningful competition from Lyon (37%) and Bayern Munich (36%). The market sees the title as genuinely competitive rather than heavily favored to any single team. Key drivers of movement would include team injuries, performance in domestic leagues, and head-to-head matchups as the tournament progresses. The tournament structure and draw—when opponents are finalized—would be the primary catalyst clarifying competitive positioning, as fixture difficulty significantly affects win probability.
- ›Barcelona's current implied probability (45%) is only 8 percentage points above the second-favorite Lyon, indicating narrow market confidence in a clear favorite
- ›The three leading contenders collectively account for 118% of probability mass in this three-contract market, suggesting persistent uncertainty about the actual winner
- ›Recent domestic league performance and European group-stage results (if applicable in 2026 format) would be concrete data shifting probabilities between these teams
- ›The tournament draw and fixture scheduling materially affects probability by determining path difficulty and potential semifinal opponents
- ›Squad availability for the tournament, particularly injuries to key players in Barcelona, Lyon, or Bayern Munich lineups, would trigger substantial repricing
What moved the line
- May 6Winner: Barcelona↑32pp45→77¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Winner: OL Lyonnes↓26pp44→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Winner: Barcelona↓21pp77→56¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Winner: OL Lyonnes↑21pp23→44¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Winner: OL Lyonnes↓12pp35→23¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (69% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.