Freiburg vs Braga
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
6 contracts
Closes
May 21, 2026
13 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Aston Villa vs Nottingham: First Half Winner
Aston Villa vs Nottingham: First Half Winner?: Nottingham
KXUEL1H-26MAY07AVLNFO-NFO
Aston Villa vs Nottingham: First Half Winner?: Aston Villa
KXUEL1H-26MAY07AVLNFO-AVL
Aston Villa vs Nottingham: First Half Winner?: Tie
KXUEL1H-26MAY07AVLNFO-TIE
Cluster 2
Freiburg vs Braga: First Half Winner
Analysis
This 29% probability reflects the current market expectation that Freiburg will win this matchup. The price stems from comparing the relative strength of German Bundesliga-based Freiburg against Portuguese Primeira Liga side Braga, with factors like home-field advantage, recent form, and head-to-head history informing the odds. The contract will resolve when the match concludes; timing and location of the fixture would directly impact the outcome. Market liquidity is concentrated on the full-match winner contracts rather than first-half bets, suggesting most traders are focused on the overall result rather than early-game momentum.
- ›Freiburg's Bundesliga standing and recent league performance versus Braga's position in the Portuguese top division
- ›Home advantage if the match is played in Germany, or neutral/away considerations if held elsewhere
- ›Head-to-head historical record between the two clubs and their European competition experience
- ›Injury status and squad availability for both teams leading into the fixture date
- ›The specific match context: whether this is a knockout, group stage, or other competition format that affects tactical approach
What moved the line
- May 6First Half Winner?: Freiburg↑4pp35→39¢ · Kalshi
- May 6First Half Winner?: Aston Villa↑4pp35→39¢ · Kalshi
- May 6First Half Winner?: Tie↑3pp38→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 20 h ago.