Freiburg vs Braga
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
4 contracts
Closes
Jun 4, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Aston Villa vs Nottingham” vs “Freiburg vs Braga”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Aston Villa vs Nottingham
Cluster 2
Freiburg vs Braga
Analysis
This 47% probability indicates the market's current assessment that Freiburg will win their match against Braga. The probability reflects expectations about team form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage if applicable. Key drivers of this probability include recent performance trends for both teams in their respective leagues, injury or suspension status of key players, and historical matchup outcomes. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the scheduled match itself, which determines the final outcome and closes the contract.
- ›Freiburg's current league position and recent win-loss record compared to Braga's standing in their competition
- ›Historical head-to-head results between these teams and their performance in European or relevant competitions
- ›Availability of key players—injuries, suspensions, or roster changes for either squad heading into the match
- ›Home vs. away performance differential for both teams this season
- ›Betting market liquidity and volume on this contract, which at $0 24h volume suggests minimal recent trading activity
What moved the line
- May 7Aston Villa↑5pp42→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Freiburg↑3pp42→45¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Braga↑3pp50→53¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 20 h ago.