Freiburg wins by over 1.5 goals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14K
6 contracts
Closes
May 21, 2026
13 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Aston Villa wins by over
Cluster 2
Freiburg wins by over
Cluster 3
Nottingham wins by over 1.5 goals
Nottingham wins by over 1.5 goals?: Nottingham wins by over 1.5 goals
KXUELSPREAD-26MAY07AVLNFO-NFO1
Cluster 4
Braga wins by over 1.5 goals
Braga wins by over 1.5 goals?: Braga wins by over 1.5 goals
KXUELSPREAD-26MAY07SCFBRA-BRA1
What moved the line
- May 6Freiburg wins by over 2.5 goals↑8pp4→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Aston Villa wins by over 2.5 goals↑7pp5→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Aston Villa wins by over 1.5 goals↑5pp25→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Freiburg wins by over 1.5 goals↑5pp24→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Nottingham wins by over 1.5 goals↑4pp2→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 20 h ago.