Will the Fight end before round 3
Leader sits at 71% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 70%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Fight ends before round 5
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
70¢
Fight ends before round 5
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
May 30, 2026
22 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Fight end before round
Will the Fight end before round 4?: Fight ends before round 4
KXUFCROUNDS-26MAY09CHISTR-4
Will the Fight end before round 3?: Fight ends before round 3
KXUFCROUNDS-26MAY09SUSSAN-3
Will the Fight end before round 2?: Fight ends before round 2
KXUFCROUNDS-26MAY09CHISTR-2
Will the Fight end before round 5?: Fight ends before round 5
KXUFCROUNDS-26MAY09CHISTR-5
Will the Fight end before round 3?: Fight ends before round 3
KXUFCROUNDS-26MAY09CHISTR-3
Will the Fight end before round 5?: Fight ends before round 5
KXUFCROUNDS-26MAY16NGALIN-5
Will the Fight end before round 5?: Fight ends before round 5
KXUFCROUNDS-26MAY16ROUCAR-5
Will the Fight end before round 4?: Fight ends before round 4
KXUFCROUNDS-26MAY16ROUCAR-4
Will the Fight end before round 3?: Fight ends before round 3
KXUFCROUNDS-26MAY16ROUCAR-3
Will the Fight end before round 2?: Fight ends before round 2
KXUFCROUNDS-26MAY16ROUCAR-2
Will the Fight end before round 3?: Fight ends before round 3
KXUFCROUNDS-26MAY16SALCRO-3
Will the Fight end before round 3?: Fight ends before round 3
KXUFCROUNDS-26MAY16FAZBAB-3
Analysis
This probability indicates traders estimate a 69% chance the fight will conclude before the end of round 5, meaning a knockout, submission, or stoppage within the first 20 minutes of competition. The current pricing reflects market expectations about fighter conditioning, striking power, and grappling advantage, balanced against the possibility of a competitive bout extending deeper. The main driver of this level appears to be historical fight data and fighter profiles—if one competitor is significantly more powerful or dominant, the probability would rise; conversely, if both fighters are known for cardio and technical exchanges, it would decline. The resolution will be determined on the fight date itself when the actual bout outcome becomes definitive and contracts settle.
- ›Historical stoppage rates for both fighters combined with their typical fight pacing and conditioning levels
- ›Relative striking power, knockout frequency, and grappling submission ability of each competitor
- ›Weight class and fight ruleset, which affect how quickly finishing opportunities typically arise
- ›Recent betting volume and contract repricing at different intervals (26¢, 47¢, 51¢, 60¢) suggesting disagreement about stopping point likelihood
- ›Schedule and time until fight date—proximity to the event typically increases forecast precision and trading volume
What moved the line
- May 6Fight ends before round 3↓26pp52→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Fight ends before round 3↑11pp16→27¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Fight ends before round 2↑10pp37→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Fight ends before round 3↑10pp40→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Fight ends before round 3↑10pp50→60¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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