Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 62% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$200M
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
$400M
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch
Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0x70eb82…7dbd
Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M
0xe79a0a…8e7e
Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $600M
0xc8bf61…2b91
Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $400M
0x775164…66c1
Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $3B
0x235ad1…b03c
Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0x2d2be5…e60b
Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $2B
0xa76a27…3c81
Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1.5B
0xec250d…2fad
Analysis
This market estimates a 62% probability that a newly launched token will reach a $600 million fully diluted valuation within one day of launch. The probability reflects trader expectations about initial demand and token allocation across multiple potential projects. The current level suggests moderate confidence in hitting this valuation threshold, with comparable benchmarks (such as recent token launches and fundraising rounds) influencing estimates. Upward pressure would come from strong pre-launch hype, institutional interest, or favorable market conditions, while downward pressure would result from reduced enthusiasm, market volatility, or lower-than-expected initial trading volume. The key uncertainty centers on actual trading volumes and price discovery in the first 24 hours post-launch, which will ultimately determine whether the $600M FDV threshold is reached.
- ›Historical token launch performance data: Recent token launches and their day-one FDVs provide concrete benchmarks for estimating whether a typical project reaches $600M valuation
- ›Pre-launch funding round size and valuation: The project's seed or Series A valuation and total capital raised directly correlate with initial FDV expectations and market participant positioning
- ›Initial trading volume and exchange listing scope: Day-one FDV depends critically on available liquidity and which trading venues list the token at launch
- ›Broader crypto market conditions: Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements, market sentiment indices, and overall trading volumes significantly influence altcoin launch enthusiasm
- ›Comparison against related outcomes: The 17¢ price for the $800M threshold and 44¢ for the $500M threshold suggest diminishing probability at higher valuations, indicating clustered expectations around $500-800M range
What moved the line
- May 3$2B↓13pp39→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$800M↑12pp28→40¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$800M↓10pp49→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 3$800M↑9pp40→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$600M↑8pp40→48¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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