United States vs. Australia
Leader sits at 55% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
United States
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Draw (United States vs. Aust
Spread
28pp
contested
24h volume
$20
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 19, 2026
41 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
United States vs. Australia
Analysis
This 54% probability reflects market expectations that the United States will prevail in a hypothetical matchup against Australia. The current level suggests traders view a U.S. outcome as more likely than not, though considerable uncertainty remains given the runner-up position at 27%. The probability would move higher if geopolitical tensions or military capabilities shift in America's favor, and lower if Australia demonstrates strategic advantages or regional alliance strength. The lack of a specific near-term trigger event means this reflects baseline assessments of comparative national capacity rather than imminent developments. Resolution depends on how the specific contest parameters are defined and evaluated when outcomes become measurable.
- ›No scheduled triggering event identified; probability reflects standing assessments rather than anticipated announcements or dates
- ›Top contract at 34¢ concerns Greenland acquisition by 2029, suggesting geopolitical dominance is a relevant factor in this market
- ›Relatively modest trading volume ($51k-$3k across related contracts) indicates limited liquidity and potential for larger price swings on new information
- ›Runner-up outcome at 27% indicates meaningful probability mass assigned to non-U.S. outcomes, not overwhelming market consensus
- ›Multi-outcome structure means final probability depends on how third outcomes are weighted and resolved
What moved the line
- May 7United States↑3pp54→57¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.