United States vs. Paraguay
Leader sits at 49% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
United States
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Paraguay
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 13, 2026
35 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
United States vs. Paraguay
Analysis
This market reflects a 49% probability that the United States will engage in a military conflict with Paraguay before a specified resolution date. The underlying contracts span unrelated U.S. policy actions—from aviation industry stakes to potential Greenland acquisition—suggesting the Paraguay outcome aggregates sentiment about broader U.S. geopolitical positioning and interventionist policy. The probability remains elevated despite Paraguay's geographic distance and limited current U.S.-Paraguay tensions, indicating traders may be pricing in either a sharp escalation in regional instability, a change in U.S. foreign policy doctrine, or cross-asset correlations with other tracked outcomes. Resolution depends on whether any military engagement occurs, with timing and severity thresholds critical to contract settlement. Current trading volume and the runner-up at 27% suggest meaningful disagreement among participants about baseline conflict risk.
- ›No documented military tensions between U.S. and Paraguay currently exist; any conflict would require a significant and sudden geopolitical shift
- ›The 49% leader probability contradicts the 34% median across top individual contracts, suggesting possible data aggregation anomalies or mismatch between stated question structure and binding outcomes
- ›Historical U.S.-Paraguay relations have been diplomatic and trade-focused; Paraguay hosts limited U.S. military infrastructure compared to other regional partners
- ›Resolution criteria and date thresholds are not explicitly provided in the available contract data, creating ambiguity about what events trigger settlement
- ›Trading volume varies dramatically across contracts ($51k to $1.5k daily), indicating thin liquidity and potential for outsized moves from smaller position changes
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.