SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 7, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
19 contractsPolymarketclosed 1 d agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 0d

Urawa Red Diamonds vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 19 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

30%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

30%

19 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$4K

19 contracts

Closes

May 6, 2026

0 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 28% (4 days, 4 points)Aggregate: 28% on 2026-05-06
Aggregate of 19 contracts · 4d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 19 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds” vs “FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds

12 contracts$847

Cluster 2

FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba

7 contracts$4K

What moved the line

  • May 6FC Tōkyō31pp6635¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6JEF United Ichihara Chiba28pp1341¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)19pp289¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3FC Tōkyō18pp4866¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6Urawa Red Diamonds18pp3250¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.