Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde
Leader sits at 65% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Uruguay
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Draw (Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde
Spread
41pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 21, 2026
43 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Uruguay will defeat Cabo Verde in an upcoming match. The 69% level suggests moderately strong confidence in a Uruguay victory, though not overwhelming. Uruguay's positioning stems from factors including historical head-to-head records, FIFA rankings, and squad strength. Related market prices show Uruguay also favored against Saudi Arabia (64%) and less favored in a potential Uruguay vs. Spain matchup (38%), indicating the markets view this as a competitive but leaning-favored scenario for Uruguay. The main catalysts affecting this probability would be team news (injuries, roster changes), recent form, and betting flow as match day approaches. Outcome confirmation will occur once the match concludes and results are official.
- ›Uruguay is priced at 69% while Cabo Verde sits at 24%, indicating a clear but not decisive market preference for the Uruguayan outcome
- ›The highest-volume related contract (Spain vs. Cabo Verde at 90¢) suggests market participants view Cabo Verde as substantially weaker than top-tier competitors
- ›Uruguay's price against Saudi Arabia (64%) is only 5 points lower than against Cabo Verde, suggesting modest confidence differentiation between opponents
- ›The Uruguay vs. Spain matchup prices (38% Uruguay, 23% Draw) show Uruguay as underdog in a three-way scenario, indicating relative competitive context
- ›Trading volume on the direct Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde contract ($36 aggregate) is lower than Spain vs. Cabo Verde ($96), potentially indicating less market certainty or interest
What moved the line
- May 6Draw (Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde)↑4pp24→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Draw (Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde)↓3pp28→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Draw (Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde)↓3pp28→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Draw (Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde)↓3pp25→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Uruguay↓3pp69→66¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.