Uruguay vs. Spain
Leader sits at 50% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Spain
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Draw (Uruguay vs. Spain)
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
49 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Uruguay vs. Spain
Analysis
This 63% probability indicates that traders currently assess Uruguay as the favorite to win an upcoming match against Spain, though the outcome remains genuinely uncertain. The probability reflects market expectations based on recent form, head-to-head history, and squad composition. Spain's strength in recent international competitions and high odds in other matchups (90¢ vs. Cabo Verde, 87¢ vs. Saudi Arabia) suggest some traders view them as strong overall. However, the Uruguay contract at 38¢ reflects meaningful backing for an upset. The match result will definitively resolve this contract on the scheduled game date. Key variables include team lineups, recent injury status, home-field advantage if applicable, and any tactical adjustments either side employs. The relatively modest trading volume ($28 24h) suggests moderate market interest compared to larger sports betting contracts.
- ›Spain has priced higher than Uruguay in other concurrent contracts (90¢ and 87¢ respectively), yet Uruguay leads in this direct matchup at 64¢ in a different contract pair
- ›The three-way market structure includes a 23¢ draw option, meaning 100% of probability is distributed across Uruguay (38¢), Spain (not shown in Uruguay vs Spain contracts but implied), and draws
- ›Trading volume on the Uruguay vs Spain contract is $28 in 24h, lower than Spain's other matchups, suggesting either less certainty or less participation from sharps
- ›The contract prices across different match pairings (Spain 87-90¢ vs weaker opponents, Uruguay 64¢ vs Saudi Arabia) create arbitrage signals about relative team strength
- ›Final resolution depends entirely on match outcome with no partial settlement or contingent scenarios
What moved the line
- May 6Uruguay↓22pp36→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Spain↓13pp63→50¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Draw (Uruguay vs. Spain)↑10pp21→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Draw (Uruguay vs. Spain)↓7pp28→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Uruguay↑5pp31→36¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.