US Trade Deficit in 2026?
Leader sits at 33% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
800–900B
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
700–800B
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$124
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 28, 2027
254 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
US Trade Deficit in 2026
US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 700–800B
0x17ac7b…5cf4
US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 900B–1T
0x26b690…529e
US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 800–900B
0xd3c655…e7ef
US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 600–700B
0xac9d61…e9c7
US Trade Deficit in 2026?: <500B
0xaaf3bc…2a7c
US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 1T–1.1T
0x9bf22c…6a74
US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 500–600B
0x4984db…05b8
US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 1.1T+
0x306b01…9d91
Analysis
This contract asks whether the US trade deficit will fall within the $600–700 billion range during 2026. The current 44% probability indicates a near-even split, with substantial uncertainty about trade dynamics. The forecast reflects competing pressures: ongoing imports relative to exports, potential trade policy shifts under the current administration, and China's trade balance position. Monthly trade data releases, particularly April 2026 figures and subsequent months, will provide concrete evidence of deficit trends. A key catalyst is whether Trump announces a major trade deal before June 1—currently priced at 33%—which could reshape tariff structures and trade flows. Secondary factors include China's balance-of-trade strength and any policy announcements affecting bilateral or broader trade arrangements.
- ›April 2026 US trade deficit reported by Census Bureau will establish whether the deficit is tracking toward the $600–700B annual range or diverging significantly above or below
- ›Trump administration announces a new trade deal before June 1, 2026 (33¢ probability), which could materially alter tariff rates and bilateral trade volumes
- ›China's monthly trade balance consistently above $130B USD (7¢ probability) would signal sustained export pressure affecting US imports and overall deficit calculations
- ›Cumulative year-to-date deficit through May 2026 provides the running total from which annualized projections are made
- ›No major policy reversals or enforcement actions change existing tariff regimes between now and year-end 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 17700–800B↑8pp10→18¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18900B–1T↓4pp16→12¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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