Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?
This contract is priced at 11¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 13¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
8
Family volume
$21K
Best sibling
800–900B 40¢
Ticker
0xaaf3bc4e…2a7c
Market snapshot
<500B in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?. The displayed quote is 11¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $17K. In the US Trade Deficit in 2026? family, this outcome ranks #3 of 8 by current quote across 8 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC.
Outcome
<500B
Family rank
#3 of 8
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
11¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Feb 28, 2027
Reported volume
$17K
Family context
8 outcomes · US Trade Deficit in 2026?
Quote range
2¢-40¢
Family leader
800–900B 40¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 15m ago
Venue identifier: 0xaaf3bc4e63735b3bfcc7a008e00ce7466a699584a50e92d94cd256a0ced72a7c. Family volume: $21K.
Price history
11¢ current
+3¢Orderbook snapshot
4 / 17¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Feb 28, 2027
Identifier
0xaaf3bc4e…2a7c
Event family
US Trade Deficit in 2026.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$21K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
800–900B 40¢
Current share
79%
<500B
polymarket · 0xaaf3bc4e63735b3bfcc7a008e00ce7466a699584a50e92d94cd256a0ced72a7c
800–900B
polymarket · 0xd3c6552a51528c74c28471aa0a5e13fbafdf84f02a40d11bf173b94032b7e7ef
900B–1T
polymarket · 0x26b69058c1c2c53a8e439504a8755ce75d469ba3a1c82bca934ea7a46f26529e
1.1T+
polymarket · 0x306b01a825a423668beec573456610843ad4c47f72d1fb70d880f55b10109d91
700–800B
polymarket · 0x17ac7b249bf0672209617e31a6b56eb79ffa056dc9a3e873b2baba2276675cf4
1T–1.1T
polymarket · 0x9bf22c2451daab2017ba08fc2f2fcc96a37e3f8c7c091d14fa7d719d2d8f6a74
600–700B
polymarket · 0xac9d6105090f5e372ceb14422889be27f4a07a8b10497786d2df5946d0d7e9c7
500–600B
polymarket · 0x4984dbde0e85feab501afae35635c01581d632dbd671d00e81709fd1801605b8
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
data_release
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