Will total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States for week ending May 8, 2026 be above 1800ㅤ

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects a strong market expectation that flight cancellations within, into, or out of the United States during the week of May 5-8, 2026 will exceed 1,800 total cancellations. The estimate sits notably above the lower threshold (1,600) where confidence reaches 85%, but traders assign meaningfully lower odds to higher thresholds like 2,000+ cancellations, suggesting consensus expectations cluster in the 1,600-2,000 range. Weather patterns, seasonal travel demand, and airline operational capacity during early May typically drive cancellation levels. The primary catalyst remains the actual cancellation data published for that week, which would definitively resolve this contract. Current probability reflects either anticipated spring weather volatility or elevated operational challenges expected during that specific period.

• ›Historical cancellation rates for early May weeks typically range 1,200-2,200, so 1,800 represents plausible but elevated territory
• ›Probability cliff between 1,600 threshold (85%) and 2,000 threshold (71%) suggests market uncertainty concentrates in the 1,600-2,000 band
• ›Spring weather systems and severe thunderstorm season across central U.S. routes peak during this timeframe, directly affecting cancellation likelihood
• ›Kalshi contract volume remains low ($270-$205 on related outcomes), indicating limited liquidity and potential for probability shifts with modest trading activity
• ›The outcome depends entirely on published DOT/airline cancellation statistics for the specific week, providing binary resolution without ambiguity

What moved the line

• May 7Above 2800ㅤ↓47pp89→42¢ · Kalshi
• May 3Above 1800ㅤ↑46pp31→77¢ · Kalshi
• May 7Above 3000ㅤ↓43pp73→30¢ · Kalshi
• May 7Above 2900ㅤ↓40pp81→41¢ · Kalshi
• May 7Above 2700ㅤ↓31pp89→58¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds