Rhode Island FC vs Charleston Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$223
20 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Hartford Athletic vs Detroit City FC Winner” vs “Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Hartford Athletic vs Detroit City FC Winner
Hartford Athletic vs Detroit City FC Winner?: Detroit City FC
KXUSLGAME-26MAY09HARDET-DET
Hartford Athletic vs Detroit City FC Winner?: Tie
KXUSLGAME-26MAY09HARDET-TIE
Hartford Athletic vs Detroit City FC Winner?: Hartford Athletic
KXUSLGAME-26MAY09HARDET-HAR
Cluster 2
Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Winner
Cluster 3
Phoenix Rising vs San Antonio Winner
Cluster 4
New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights Winner
New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights Winner?: New Mexico United
KXUSLGAME-26MAY09NEWLAS-NEW
New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights Winner?: Tie
KXUSLGAME-26MAY09NEWLAS-TIE
New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights Winner?: Las Vegas Lights
KXUSLGAME-26MAY09NEWLAS-LAS
Cluster 5
Rhode Island FC vs Tampa Bay Winner
Cluster 6
Oakland Roots SC vs El Paso Locomotive FC Winner
Oakland Roots SC vs El Paso Locomotive FC Winner?: Oakland Roots SC
KXUSLGAME-26MAY09OAKPAS-OAK
Oakland Roots SC vs El Paso Locomotive FC Winner?: Tie
KXUSLGAME-26MAY09OAKPAS-TIE
Oakland Roots SC vs El Paso Locomotive FC Winner?: El Paso Locomotive FC
KXUSLGAME-26MAY09OAKPAS-PAS
Cluster 7
Indy Eleven vs Sporting Jax Winner
What moved the line
- May 8Oakland Roots SC↑7pp30→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 8El Paso Locomotive FC↑6pp25→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Louisville City↑5pp57→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 8New Mexico United↑4pp45→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Tie↑4pp18→22¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.