Will US PPI MoM for April 2026 be above -0.3%

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets are pricing a 97% probability that April 2026 US Producer Price Index rose month-over-month by more than -0.4%, meaning a decline smaller than -0.4% or any positive reading. This reflects expectations for either modest inflation or a shallow deflation in producer costs. The high probability reflects recent trends in producer price stability and limited expectations for sharp deflationary pressure. Key drivers include underlying commodity price movements, energy costs, and labor expenses feeding through to producers. The exact April PPI figure, scheduled for release in early May 2026, will definitively resolve this question. Tighter contract pricing around 0.8% to 0.9% suggests traders see meaningful downside tail risk but view large positive readings as unlikely. Volatility in energy markets and supply chain conditions remain central uncertainties.

• ›Current contract prices show 20% implied probability of April PPI MoM exceeding +0.8%, indicating traders expect inflation but not acceleration
• ›The clustering of probabilities between -0.4% and -0.2% suggests most uncertainty falls within a narrow 0.2 percentage-point band rather than tail scenarios
• ›Energy commodity prices and crude oil futures as of early May 2026 are primary inputs to producer price momentum expectations
• ›The runner-up outcome at 92% probability indicates marginal disagreement about whether the threshold should be -0.4% versus -0.3%, suggesting the true range is precisely calibrated
• ›Only 11 cents probability assigned to readings above +0.9% suggests consensus rejection of significant producer inflation acceleration

What moved the line

• May 8Above 0.1%↑43pp31→74¢ · Kalshi
• May 8Above -0.3%↑41pp52→93¢ · Kalshi
• May 8Above -0.1%↑38pp51→89¢ · Kalshi
• May 8Above 0.2%↑23pp32→55¢ · Kalshi
• May 8Above 0.4%↑21pp17→38¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds