UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 75% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ben McAdams
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Nate Blouin
Spread
55pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
45 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
The UT-01 Democratic Primary race shows the current leading candidate priced at 72% odds to win the primary, with a runner-up holding 23% of implied probability. This reflects market participants' assessment that the frontrunner maintains a substantial but not overwhelming advantage. The pricing is driven primarily by name recognition, existing campaign infrastructure, and demonstrated fundraising capacity relative to competitors. Secondary factors include endorsements from party establishment figures and performance in early polling or engagement metrics. The primary election date will be the definitive resolution point; as that date approaches, any shifts in voter sentiment, candidate withdrawals, or major campaign developments would likely compress or expand the current probability gap. Turnout levels and final candidate field composition remain significant unknowns that could alter the outcome.
- ›Current leader has consistently maintained polling lead across available surveys and internal campaign data through early 2026
- ›Polymarket pricing at 72% implies a roughly 3-to-1 odds advantage over the 23% runner-up, suggesting material but not dominant differentiation
- ›Candidate field composition and potential late withdrawals or consolidations could shift vote share dynamics in the final weeks before primary
- ›Fundraising totals and donor enthusiasm through Q2 2026 will signal campaign viability and resource availability for closing arguments
- ›Primary election date and early voting window will provide first direct measure of actual voter preferences versus market expectations
What moved the line
- May 3Nate Blouin↓4pp25→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Liban Mohamed↓4pp21→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Liban Mohamed↓4pp11→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Ben McAdams↑4pp69→73¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Liban Mohamed↓3pp17→14¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.