Uzbekistan vs. Colombia
Leader sits at 70% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Colombia
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Draw (Uzbekistan vs. Colombi
Spread
51pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$39
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 18, 2026
40 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia
Analysis
Markets are pricing Colombia as a 72% favorite over Uzbekistan in an upcoming matchup. This reflects assessments of team strength, recent form, and head-to-head history, though low trading volume on most contracts suggests limited liquidity and potentially wider uncertainty than the headline figure indicates. The outcome will depend on factors including squad availability, tactical adjustments, and performance on the day. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty once played; bettors should note the significant price discrepancy between venues (68¢ on Kalshi versus 12¢ on Polymarket for the same Colombia outcome), which suggests either different contract designs or inefficient pricing across platforms.
- ›Colombia is priced at 72% while Uzbekistan sits at 8-12% depending on venue, indicating markets view Colombia as the substantially stronger favorite based on available team data
- ›Low 24-hour trading volume ($0-12) on most contracts suggests limited market depth and the possibility that prices may move sharply on new information or larger trades
- ›Identical outcome (Colombia winner) trades at vastly different prices across exchanges (68¢ vs. 12¢), indicating potential contract specification differences or pricing inefficiency worth investigating
- ›Recent form, injuries, and squad composition changes in the weeks before the match would be primary drivers of probability shifts given the gap between current prices
- ›The match date and any official team announcements will be the decisive catalyst for resolving this market
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.