Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 52% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$100M
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
50¢
$80M
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch
Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $20M
0x5bb8d4…d23d
Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0xa21c68…c024
Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0xc29b6f…e6e7
Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0x724fe3…b48a
Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $150M
0x206f37…41ef
Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0xe6a007…683f
Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $80M
0x36eaa1…2eb0
Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0x49428b…f977
Analysis
This market estimates a 66% probability that Valantis will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $80 million on its first day after launch. The probability reflects trader expectations about initial market demand relative to token supply and price discovery mechanisms. The current odds suggest moderate confidence in reaching this threshold, though significant uncertainty remains about launch timing, token allocation, and competitive positioning. Key drivers include pre-launch hype and community size, comparable project valuations at launch, and actual trading volume when tokens become available. Resolution depends entirely on the FDV calculation methodology applied one day post-launch, which typically multiplies token price by total supply including unvested portions.
- ›Token supply and vesting schedule—larger unlocked supplies dilute FDV; stricter lockups concentrate early price impact
- ›Comparable launch valuations—recent token launches achieving $50M-$500M FDV on day one establish reference points for market expectations
- ›Pre-launch community size and engagement—holder count and social activity correlate with initial demand and price support
- ›Trading volume and exchange listings available on launch day—thinner markets or limited exchange access reduce price discovery efficiency
- ›Stated valuation or funding round amounts—prior institutional investment rounds create anchors that influence retail pricing expectations
What moved the line
- May 6$20M↓22pp65→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$100M↓4pp54→50¢ · Polymarket
- May 8$100M↑3pp50→53¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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