Will JD Vance visit Pakistan before May 4, 2026
Leader sits at 23% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before May 29, 2026
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
Before May 22, 2026
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
May 29, 2026
20 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan before May
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan before May 22, 2026?: Before May 22, 2026
KXVANCEPAKISTAN-26APR30-MAY22
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan before May 29, 2026?: Before May 29, 2026
KXVANCEPAKISTAN-26APR30-MAY29
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan before May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026
KXVANCEPAKISTAN-26APR30-MAY15
What moved the line
- May 2Before May 29, 2026↓9pp35→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Before May 22, 2026↓8pp29→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Before May 15, 2026↓6pp15→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Before May 29, 2026↓5pp26→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Before May 22, 2026↓4pp21→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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