Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner

30-day trend

Analysis

The current 39% probability reflects market expectations for one of four possible Vancouver mayoral candidates winning the 2026 election. With the leading candidate at 39% and the runner-up at 37%, the race remains competitive with meaningful uncertainty across the field. Market pricing is primarily influenced by candidate name recognition, recent polling data, fundraising capacity, and historical voting patterns in Vancouver municipal elections. The most consequential catalyst would be the official election date announcement or proximity to voting day, which typically generates shifts in candidate viability assessments as voter preferences solidify. Changes in candidate endorsements, campaign momentum, or local issues gaining prominence could also move probabilities materially. Resolution will ultimately occur on election day when actual voting results eliminate uncertainty across all outcomes.

• ›Market aggregates four distinct mayoral candidates with top two separated by only 2 percentage points, indicating genuine competitive uncertainty rather than a dominant frontrunner
• ›Polymarket depth on Vancouver contract remains limited relative to major election markets, suggesting probabilities may shift substantially with modest additional trading volume
• ›Municipal election outcomes frequently diverge from early-stage polling, making mid-campaign catalysts (endorsements, scandals, platform shifts) potential probability movers
• ›Voter turnout rates in municipal elections tend to be lower and more unpredictable than provincial or federal races, increasing outcome sensitivity to mobilization efforts
• ›Election date proximity functions as a natural resolution mechanism—probabilities typically converge toward actual results in final weeks as information asymmetry decreases

What moved the line

• May 2Pete Fry↓13pp25→12¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Kareem Allam↑4pp37→41¢ · Polymarket
• May 3Ken Sim↓4pp37→33¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Colleen Hardwick↑3pp1→4¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in election 2026

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• Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
• Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds