VCT 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This 44% probability reflects market expectations for a specific outcome in the 2026 Valorant Champions Tour, likely aggregating multiple Stage 1 regional competition winners across Pacific, Americas, EMEA, and China leagues. The probability sits in a moderate range, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about which teams will secure early-season victories. Stage 1 matches have not yet concluded across all regions, making these contracts sensitive to team performance, roster changes, and recent tournament results. The probability would shift upward if favored teams demonstrate strong form in early matches, or downward if unexpected competitive upsets occur. The key uncertainty resolver will be the completion of Stage 1 tournaments across all four regions, which will definitively determine the outcome and settle these contracts. Market volume remains concentrated in the Pacific contract, indicating that region commands the most trading interest and conviction among participants.

• ›Stage 1 regional tournaments across all four VCT leagues have not concluded, leaving multiple paths to contract resolution unclear
• ›Trading volume is heavily skewed toward Pacific ($167 24h) versus other regions ($0 24h), suggesting market confidence or liquidity concentrates on one specific outcome
• ›Individual Stage 1 winner contracts show mixed pricing (22¢ to 43¢), indicating disagreement about which teams are most likely to advance
• ›No single team shows overwhelming market consensus above 50%, suggesting the tournament field remains genuinely competitive
• ›Contract resolution depends on concurrent outcomes across four independent regional tournaments, creating compounding uncertainty

What moved the line

• May 6Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: Paper Rex↑13pp48→61¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: Paper Rex↓10pp61→51¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: DetonatioN FocusMe↓5pp48→43¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: DetonatioN FocusMe↑5pp43→48¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: DRX↓5pp48→43¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds