Vissel Kōbe vs. Fagiano Okayama
Leader sits at 59% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Vissel Kōbe
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Draw (Vissel Kōbe vs. Fagian
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$105
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Vissel Kōbe vs. Fagiano Okayama
Analysis
This represents the likelihood that Vissel Kōbe will defeat Fagiano Okayama in an upcoming match. At 41%, Vissel Kōbe is favored but faces material competition probability, with a draw at 33% and Fagiano Okayama at 30%. The pricing reflects Vissel Kōbe's higher historical performance tier in the Japanese football league system, though Fagiano Okayama remains competitive. Current contract volumes show minimal recent trading activity. The match outcome will be determined when the fixture is played; the specific date and venue conditions—such as home-field advantage, recent form, and team availability—will be primary drivers of final result probability shifts before kickoff. Teams' recent injury status and league position momentum heading into the match represent key variables affecting win probability.
- ›Vissel Kōbe's league standing and recent win-loss record relative to Fagiano Okayama's current season performance
- ›Home vs. away designation and historical head-to-head results between the two clubs
- ›Player availability, including injury status and suspensions affecting both teams' lineups
- ›Recent form trend for each team (goals scored/conceded, momentum) in the 2-4 weeks preceding the fixture
- ›Match date and venue conditions that could influence playing style or team preparation
What moved the line
- May 7Fagiano Okayama↓8pp25→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Vissel Kōbe↑7pp52→59¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.