SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 5 min agoCloses May 10, 2026 · 1d

Vissel Kōbe vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets

Leader sits at 72% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

72%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 46¢leader 72¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

46¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

26pp

contested

24h volume

$311

thin orderbook

Closes

May 10, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 71% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 71% on 2026-05-07Both Teams to Score: 48% (3 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 48% on 2026-05-07O/U 2.5: 46% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 2.5: 46% on 2026-05-08
O/U 1.571¢Both Teams to Score48¢O/U 2.546¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 8Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)5pp1520¢ · Polymarket
  • May 8Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)4pp117¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)3pp118¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 4.53pp1613¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.