VTB United League
Leader sits at 48% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 48%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: CSKA Moscow
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
48¢
Winner: Zenit St. Petersburg
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
VTB United League: Winner
Analysis
This market represents the implied probability that Uralmash Yekaterinburg wins the VTB United League championship. At 50%, Uralmash is marginally favored over the runner-up at 49%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the league outcome. The tight pricing suggests the contenders have roughly comparable strength or remaining schedule difficulty. Key factors driving this level include current standings, remaining fixtures, head-to-head records, and injury status of key players. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the conclusion of the regular season and any playoff structure determining the champion. Volume is minimal ($0 on the Parma contract), indicating limited recent trading interest and potentially wider bid-ask spreads that could allow large moves if new information emerges. The market reflects a genuinely competitive league where multiple teams remain viable contenders through the final matches.
- ›Current standing and points differential between Uralmash and nearest competitors in VTB United League
- ›Remaining fixtures for Uralmash versus Parma and other contenders, including strength-of-schedule analysis
- ›Historical head-to-head performance and goal differential in direct matchups between top contenders
- ›Injury or suspension status of key players for Uralmash and competing teams
- ›Trading volume and bid-ask spread on this contract relative to other league winner markets, suggesting information flow
What moved the line
- May 7Winner: Lokomotiv Kuban↓6pp37→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Winner: UNICS Kazan↑6pp33→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Winner: UNICS Kazan↓4pp36→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Winner: Lokomotiv Kuban↑3pp32→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Winner: Lokomotiv Kuban↑3pp35→38¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.