Wadi Degla SC vs. Ismaily SC
Leader sits at 56% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Wadi Degla SC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (Wadi Degla SC vs. Isma
Spread
28pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 12, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Wadi Degla SC vs. Ismaily SC
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that Wadi Degla SC wins their upcoming match against Ismaily SC, currently priced at 42% compared to a 31% probability for a draw and 31% for an Ismaily victory. The market shows relatively low conviction overall, with all three outcomes clustered in a narrow range. Wadi Degla's slight edge likely reflects recent form, head-to-head record, or home advantage if applicable. The match outcome itself will resolve this uncertainty definitively. Key factors moving this probability would include team lineups, injury status of key players, recent performance streaks, and betting patterns as the match date approaches. The absence of trading volume in the past 24 hours suggests limited market activity or attention to this fixture currently.
- ›Wadi Degla SC holds only a 11-percentage-point advantage over Ismaily SC (42% vs 31%), indicating low market confidence and substantial uncertainty
- ›Draw probability equals Ismaily win probability at 31%, suggesting the market sees meaningful chance of either result or stalemate
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all three contracts indicates minimal recent market activity and potentially illiquid pricing
- ›Home field advantage, recent team form, and head-to-head historical records would be primary drivers of any probability shifts before match day
- ›Player availability and tactical changes announced closer to kickoff could materially alter market assessments if significant roster changes occur
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.