What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in May 2026?
Leader sits at 48% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ $128
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
↑ $140
Spread
29pp
contested
24h volume
$117
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
7 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in May 2026
What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $116
0x96f2a2…dace
What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $152
0x9e79d2…73d3
What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $128
0x9bbfaa…f444
What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $148
0x938883…21e2
What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $124
0x7eb0b2…81e1
What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $120
0x7cac75…794f
What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $140
0x2f1b96…7f5a
What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $144
0x21c3e2…6c64
Analysis
This contract set reflects trader expectations about where Airbnb's stock will trade during May 2026. The leading outcome—a move above $140—attracts 45% of total value, while the downside scenario below $124 claims 18%. The split suggests uncertainty about near-term momentum and seasonality. May historically sees elevated travel demand post-spring, which typically supports lodging stocks, but the tight clustering of prices ($120–$148) indicates traders see limited directional conviction. Market volume concentrates on the $128 downside contract, suggesting hedging activity. Resolution depends on May's booking trends, Q1 earnings guidance issued beforehand, and whether macro factors (interest rates, consumer spending) shift sentiment. The narrow range implies traders expect Airbnb to remain range-bound rather than experience a sharp move in either direction.
- ›Current price proximity to contract strike levels—how much ground stock must cover to reach each threshold
- ›Q1 2026 earnings report timing and guidance on Q2 bookings, which typically precede and drive May trading
- ›Seasonality patterns: May historically shows strong leisure travel demand, supporting higher price targets versus downside scenarios
- ›Implied volatility and broader tech/consumer discretionary sector momentum heading into May
- ›Recent booking trends and take-rate discussions from company communications or analyst revisions
What moved the line
- May 21↑ $144↓13pp32→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 19↑ $140↓13pp48→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 20↓ $128↓13pp52→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 20↑ $144↑12pp20→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 19↑ $148↓11pp18→7¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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