SimpleFunctions
16 source contracts·Polymarket 16·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 197d

What will Google (GOOGL) hit in April 2026?

Bracket↑ $355

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 16 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

31%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

31%

16 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$38K

16 contracts

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

197 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 42% (31 days, 31 points)Aggregate: 42% on 2026-06-17
Aggregate of 16 contracts · 31d

Bracket families

3 clusters across 16 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “What will happen before GTA VI”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

What price

14 contracts$36K

Cluster 2

What will happen before GTA VI

1 contract$2K

Cluster 3

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026

1 contract$0

Analysis

This market is pricing a 33% probability that Google's stock will reach $355 or higher at some point during April 2026. The current valuation reflects uncertainty about Google's earnings trajectory, competitive pressures in AI and cloud services, and broader macroeconomic conditions affecting tech valuations. The key driver of this probability will be Google's Q1 2026 earnings report (expected late April), which will provide concrete revenue, profit margin, and forward guidance data that either validates or challenges the market's current pricing expectations. Additionally, any major AI product announcements or competitive moves by rivals could shift market sentiment significantly. Since we are currently in June 2026, this question appears to reference a past month; if asking about a forward-looking April scenario, participants would be weighing recent quarterly performance trends and analyst consensus targets.

  • Google's Q1 2026 earnings results and forward guidance will be the primary data point determining whether investor confidence supports a $355+ stock price
  • Year-to-date stock performance through March 2026 and momentum heading into April will establish the baseline from which this price target is evaluated
  • Broader technology sector sentiment and macro interest rate expectations will influence whether growth stocks like Google command premium valuations at that level
  • Competitive developments in generative AI and cloud computing could materially impact investor expectations for Google's future margin expansion
  • Aggregate analyst price targets and institutional positioning data provide context for what market participants view as fair value near $355

What moved the line

  • Jun 15↓ 6014pp8268¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 15↓ 1,50011pp8170¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 10↓ 55,0006pp7177¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 10↓ 606pp8692¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 11↓ 55,0005pp7772¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.