What will Google (GOOGL) hit in April 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 16 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
31%
16 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$38K
16 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
197 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “What will happen before GTA VI”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000
0xbb379a…f50e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 60
0x0135f2…c27e
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 160,000
0x472c90…54b0
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 16
0x8555a0…b7bf
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
Cluster 2
What will happen before GTA VI
What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m
0xbb57cc…89d2
Cluster 3
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?: Google
0xc48b0f…a64c
Analysis
This market is pricing a 33% probability that Google's stock will reach $355 or higher at some point during April 2026. The current valuation reflects uncertainty about Google's earnings trajectory, competitive pressures in AI and cloud services, and broader macroeconomic conditions affecting tech valuations. The key driver of this probability will be Google's Q1 2026 earnings report (expected late April), which will provide concrete revenue, profit margin, and forward guidance data that either validates or challenges the market's current pricing expectations. Additionally, any major AI product announcements or competitive moves by rivals could shift market sentiment significantly. Since we are currently in June 2026, this question appears to reference a past month; if asking about a forward-looking April scenario, participants would be weighing recent quarterly performance trends and analyst consensus targets.
- ›Google's Q1 2026 earnings results and forward guidance will be the primary data point determining whether investor confidence supports a $355+ stock price
- ›Year-to-date stock performance through March 2026 and momentum heading into April will establish the baseline from which this price target is evaluated
- ›Broader technology sector sentiment and macro interest rate expectations will influence whether growth stocks like Google command premium valuations at that level
- ›Competitive developments in generative AI and cloud computing could materially impact investor expectations for Google's future margin expansion
- ›Aggregate analyst price targets and institutional positioning data provide context for what market participants view as fair value near $355
What moved the line
- Jun 15↓ 60↓14pp82→68¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15↓ 1,500↓11pp81→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10↓ 55,000↑6pp71→77¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10↓ 60↑6pp86→92¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11↓ 55,000↓5pp77→72¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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