What price will Aster hit in 2026?
Leader sits at 56% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ 0.40
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
↑ 1.40
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will Aster hit in 2026
What price will Aster hit in 2026?: ↑ 2.00
0x5362b5…9e89
What price will Aster hit in 2026?: ↓ 0.20
0x0c6a0a…9b54
What price will Aster hit in 2026?: ↑ 1.40
0xf6e76f…4c77
What price will Aster hit in 2026?: ↑ 1.80
0x4ae1b1…865a
What price will Aster hit in 2026?: ↑ 2.20
0xe38242…cd8b
What price will Aster hit in 2026?: ↓ 0.40
0x178da1…9fe8
What price will Aster hit in 2026?: ↑ 1.60
0x752bb8…c138
Analysis
This market is assessing whether Aster will trade below $0.40 by the end of 2026, with traders currently estimating a 52% probability of that outcome. The pricing reflects uncertainty about Aster's fundamental adoption and utility over the next seven months. Market interest remains modest, with volume concentrated in Bitcoin price predictions rather than Aster specifically. Upward pressure on this probability would come from declining developer activity, reduced token utility, or broader cryptocurrency market weakness. Downward pressure would require evidence of increased platform usage, partnerships, or positive technical developments. The key uncertainty is whether Aster can maintain or grow its current valuation amid competitive pressures in its category. Resolution depends entirely on Aster's actual trading price on December 31, 2026, making near-term adoption metrics and market sentiment the primary drivers of probability movement.
- ›Current Aster price relative to $0.40 threshold and recent volatility trends determine baseline probability calibration
- ›Developer activity, GitHub commits, and ecosystem partnerships provide signals about long-term token utility and adoption potential
- ›Trading volume and liquidity depth on major exchanges affect price stability and the likelihood of reaching specific price targets
- ›Broader cryptocurrency market conditions, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum performance, historically correlate with altcoin valuations
- ›Competitive dynamics within Aster's specific category and emergence of alternative solutions could pressure token economics
What moved the line
- May 6↑ 1.80↓27pp45→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 6↓ 0.40↑9pp51→60¢ · Polymarket
- May 6↑ 1.60↓4pp31→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 2↑ 1.40↓4pp60→56¢ · Polymarket
- May 3↓ 0.40↑3pp48→51¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.