What price will edgeX hit in 2026?
Leader sits at 74% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ $2.50
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
↓ $0.60
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will edgeX hit in 2026
What price will edgeX hit in 2026?: ↑ $3.00
0x552737…0aa9
What price will edgeX hit in 2026?: ↓ $0.20
0x8e788f…71c7
What price will edgeX hit in 2026?: ↓ $0.40
0xdee352…588c
What price will edgeX hit in 2026?: ↓ $0.60
0x6c6e81…59f0
What price will edgeX hit in 2026?: ↑ $1.60
0x04a33a…d11e
What price will edgeX hit in 2026?: ↑ $1.80
0x5c4721…01b8
What price will edgeX hit in 2026?: ↑ $2.00
0x3cdcc1…04f6
What price will edgeX hit in 2026?: ↑ $2.50
0x8f4382…1e37
Analysis
The 76% probability indicates market participants believe edgeX will reach $1.60 or higher by the end of 2026. This assessment reflects current trading dynamics in cryptocurrency derivative markets, where Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements substantially influence altcoin valuations. The leading probability suggests traders view this price target as more likely than not, though the significant gap to the 54% runner-up indicates meaningful uncertainty remains. Key drivers include overall cryptocurrency market conditions through year-end 2026, edgeX's development progress and adoption metrics, and correlation with major asset price movements. The outcome will be determined on or around December 31, 2026, when the contract resolves based on edgeX's spot price. Until then, shifts in Bitcoin and Ethereum valuations—which show considerable dispersion in trader forecasts themselves—will likely influence edgeX positioning.
- ›Current leader at 76% vs. runner-up at 54% indicates material disagreement on whether $1.60 is achievable, despite one view being significantly favored
- ›Bitcoin contracts show wide probability distribution (4¢ to 27¢ across $35k-$200k outcomes), suggesting crypto price uncertainty could materially impact edgeX trajectories
- ›The contract resolves on December 31, 2026; nine months remain for market repricing based on edgeX adoption metrics, protocol developments, or broader market structure changes
- ›Multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means traders are committing to discrete price bands rather than continuous probabilities, creating threshold effects
- ›Polymarket aggregation of 8 contracts suggests the 76% reflects distributed trader conviction, though top volume is concentrated in Bitcoin contracts ($31k+ daily volume in single contract)
What moved the line
- May 2↑ $2.50↑12pp50→62¢ · Polymarket
- May 3↑ $2.50↑10pp62→72¢ · Polymarket
- May 3↑ $3.00↑8pp47→55¢ · Polymarket
- May 6↑ $3.00↓4pp55→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 7↓ $0.40↓4pp50→46¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.