What price will Ethereum hit in May?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−78pp
15h ago
24h volume
$111K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
3 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will Ethereum hit in May
What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↓ 1,800
0x9ff262…c37d
Analysis
Ethereum is forecast to trade below $2,000 during May 2026 with 81% probability among market participants. This reflects expectations that the price will decline from current levels or fail to reach that threshold before month-end. The probability is largely driven by recent price action and implied volatility—if Ethereum has recently traded below $2,000 or shows downward momentum, that reinforces lower probability for upside breakout. Conversely, bullish catalysts such as positive regulatory developments, macroeconomic shifts, or on-chain adoption metrics could push the price higher and reduce the probability of the sub-$2,000 outcome. The main uncertainty resolver is May's close on May 31, 2026, when the contract settles against Ethereum's actual spot price. Until then, daily price movements and any significant news will continue adjusting trader expectations about whether the asset stays below that threshold.
- ›Ethereum's spot price relative to $2,000 as of late May 2026, including intraday volatility and any price approaches near the threshold
- ›Trading volume and volatility patterns in the final week of May, which typically influence whether tail-risk outcomes occur
- ›Macroeconomic conditions and Fed policy signals in May, historically correlated with crypto asset price direction
- ›Any significant regulatory announcements or security events affecting Ethereum during the contract period
- ›Polymarket contract liquidity and participation levels, which affect whether the 81% reflects deep conviction or thin order books
Recently closed in bitcoin
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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