MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Odds Collapse, Signaling Bullish Conviction

A dramatic shift is occurring in the MicroStrategy Bitcoin selling narrative, with significant implications for Bitcoin price action. The Polymarket 'MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026' contract (0x3733a1b647e7364095) collapsed 14¢ to 21¢ on massive volume of 438,623. Even more strikingly, the June 30 contract (0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad65) plunged 23¢ to 43¢ with 92,947 volume. The December 31, 2026 contract (0x8213d395e079614d6c) also dropped 4¢ to 81¢. These moves suggest the market is now highly confident that MicroStrategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, will not liquidate any of its holdings this year. This is a fundamentally bullish signal for Bitcoin, removing a major overhang that had been priced into the market. When combined with the broader Bitcoin price action — the 'Bitcoin price on May 22' Kalshi contract (KXBTCD-26MAY2217-T77) at 56¢ for above $77k with tight spreads — the picture is one of a market that sees Bitcoin range-bound but with diminishing sell pressure. The 'When will Bitcoin hit $150k?' contract (0xa0f4c4924ea1a8b410) trades at just 1¢ with 5.8M volume, indicating the market sees a new all-time high as unlikely in the near term. Traders should monitor the MicroStrategy contracts for any reversal — a sudden increase in the sell probability would be a sharp bearish catalyst. The Bitcoin price prediction contracts on both Kalshi and Polymarket offer granular ways to express views on the next BTC move.