MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Probability Skyrockets, Crypto Markets Wobble
The market for MicroStrategy selling any Bitcoin by May 31 surged +11 points to 40¢, while the probability for a sale by June 30 is now 71¢. This selling pressure narrative is weighing on Bitcoin prices, which are down alongside traditional risk assets.
Key takeaways
- 01
The market for MicroStrategy selling any Bitcoin by May 31 surged +11 points to 40¢, while the probability for a sale by June 30 is now 71¢.
- 02
This selling pressure narrative is weighing on Bitcoin prices, which are down alongside traditional risk assets.
- 03
One of the most dramatic moves in the crypto prediction space today is the skyrocketing probability of MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder, selling part of its Bitcoin stash.
Full analysis
One of the most dramatic moves in the crypto prediction space today is the skyrocketing probability of MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder, selling part of its Bitcoin stash. The contract for a sale by May 31 jumped +11 points to 40¢, a massive move for that timeframe. The follow-on market for a sale by June 30 is already trades at 71¢ (+2). This creates a palpable overhang for Bitcoin. A 40% sale by MicroStrategy would be a historic event, likely leading to panic selling across the market. The traditional Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is down 2.9%, reflecting this negative sentiment. Interestingly, the market for Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high by June 30 is only 1¢, showing that the market is not expecting a near-term catalyst to overcome this selling pressure. The drop to $45k market has a 33¢ probability, indicating that a substantial correction is the base case among traders. The `sf query "MicroStrategy" command should be used to monitor any official statements from MicroStrategy, as this is the primary catalyst.
Related markets
Source markets at a glance
The contracts behind this dispatch — current price + 24h volume. Click any card for live orderbook data.
Zoom out
sf query "MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin"