What price will Lighter hit in 2026?
Leader sits at 18% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ $3
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
↑ $4
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$11
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will Lighter hit in 2026
What price will Lighter hit in 2026?: ↑ $4
0x554c41…e40c
What price will Lighter hit in 2026?: ↑ $3
0x6cc647…1679
What price will Lighter hit in 2026?: ↑ $6
0xd42bc0…c461
What price will Lighter hit in 2026?: ↑ $8
0xf120ef…8b29
What price will Lighter hit in 2026?: ↑ $10
0x3392d4…5855
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Lighter, a cryptocurrency token, will reach $10 at any point during 2026. The current 18% probability indicates markets view this price target as unlikely but meaningful, with roughly 1-in-5 odds. The price reflects uncertainty around Lighter's adoption trajectory, competition in its segment, and broader crypto market conditions. Upward movement would likely follow announcements of major partnerships, exchange listings, or protocol upgrades; downward pressure would come from failed releases or sustained low trading volume. The resolution depends entirely on spot-price data at major exchanges through December 31, 2026, making any significant market rallies or downturns the primary catalyst for probability shifts.
- ›Current Lighter trading price relative to $10 target and historical volatility patterns
- ›Exchange listing status and liquidity depth across major trading venues
- ›Competitive positioning versus similar tokens in Lighter's market segment
- ›Broader crypto market correlation, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum price performance
- ›Development milestone completion and mainnet or feature launch timelines announced by the team
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.