What price will Plasma hit in 2026?
Leader sits at 45% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ 0.24
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
↑ 0.30
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will Plasma hit in 2026
What price will Plasma hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.24
0x6e474b…bedd
What price will Plasma hit in 2026?: ↑ 1.20
0x8a8edd…cd29
What price will Plasma hit in 2026?: ↑ 1.60
0x9d9f48…d3f6
What price will Plasma hit in 2026?: ↑ 2.00
0x6fc530…181c
What price will Plasma hit in 2026?: ↑ 1.40
0x6a1922…713f
What price will Plasma hit in 2026?: ↑ 1.80
0xf7c672…954f
What price will Plasma hit in 2026?: ↑ 2.20
0x245596…fa84
What price will Plasma hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.50
0xcf0916…6958
What price will Plasma hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.30
0x21246c…4293
What price will Plasma hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.60
0x71fc20…cb20
What price will Plasma hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.40
0x96ec8d…fe61
Analysis
The 45% probability indicates that traders view a specific price outcome for Plasma as moderately likely but not the most probable scenario in a winner-take-all market with multiple competing outcomes. The current leading position faces competition from alternative price predictions, with the runner-up at 31% suggesting meaningful disagreement about Plasma's trajectory. Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts show traders are actively pricing crypto volatility across multiple assets through 2026, with significant trading volume concentrated on downside price boundaries. The actual resolution will depend on Plasma's technical adoption, market sentiment shifts, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions over the remaining months of 2026. Trading activity levels and the spacing between competing outcomes suggest moderate confidence rather than strong conviction in any single price scenario.
- ›The leading contract at 45% faces material competition from a 31% runner-up, indicating divided trader opinion rather than consensus
- ›Top contract trading volumes show varying conviction levels, with Bitcoin downside ($45k) at 27¢ receiving 31x the volume of Bitcoin upside ($200k) at 4¢
- ›The 11-contract structure means probability is distributed across multiple bound outcomes, reducing any single prediction's absolute weight
- ›Crypto price markets typically show heavy volume clustering around round numbers and technical support/resistance levels
- ›Historical volatility in cryptocurrency markets suggests prediction markets require substantial new information to shift probabilities materially across seasons
What moved the line
- May 8↑ 0.50↓24pp35→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 2↑ 1.40↓19pp35→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 6↑ 0.30↓17pp31→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 6↑ 0.60↓14pp35→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 2↑ 0.50↓14pp49→35¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.