What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in April 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 59% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
59%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
20 contracts
Top contract
68¢
$905 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “What will Pa” vs “What will Lyft, Inc. say during their next earnings call”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will Pa
What will Palantir Technologies Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Revenue guidance
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPLTR-26MAY04-REVE
What will Palantir Technologies Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Government Contract
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPLTR-26MAY04-GOVE
What will Palantir Technologies Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Stellantis
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPLTR-26MAY04-STEL
What will Palantir Technologies Inc. say during their next earnings call?: International
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPLTR-26MAY04-INTE
What will Palantir Technologies Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Nvidia
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPLTR-26MAY04-NVID
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Stablecoin / Stable Coin
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-STAB
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Biometric
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-BIOM
What will Palantir Technologies Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Israel
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPLTR-26MAY04-ISRA
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Bitcoin
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-BITC
What will Palantir Technologies Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Commercial Growth
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPLTR-26MAY04-COMM
What will Palantir Technologies Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Healthcare
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPLTR-26MAY04-HEAL
What will Palantir Technologies Inc. say during their next earnings call?: USDA
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPLTR-26MAY04-USDA
Cluster 2
What will Lyft, Inc. say during their next earnings call
What will Lyft, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Revenue
KXEARNINGSMENTIONLYFT-26MAY07-REVE
What will Lyft, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Safety
KXEARNINGSMENTIONLYFT-26MAY07-SAFE
What will Lyft, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Mobileye
KXEARNINGSMENTIONLYFT-26MAY07-MOBI
Cluster 3
What will Shopify Inc. say during their next earnings call
Cluster 4
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Alabama
KXREDISTRICTING-26-AL
Cluster 5
What will Uber Technologies, Inc. say during their next earnings call
What will Uber Technologies, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Joby
KXEARNINGSMENTIONUBER-26MAY06-JOBY
Cluster 6
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Social Media
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-SOCI
What moved the line
- Apr 28Revenue guidance↑29pp33→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Alabama↑24pp44→68¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Safety↓15pp59→44¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28USDA↑15pp35→50¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Stellantis↑14pp35→49¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.