What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in April 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 86% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
86%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
136 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
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KXREDISTRICTING-26-AL
Analysis
This probability indicates an 86% chance that Rocket Lab USA's stock price will close below $56 in April 2026. The current market assessment reflects expectations about the company's operational performance and market conditions over the coming months. Factors driving this high probability include recent stock performance trends and broader aerospace market dynamics. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be Rocket Lab's actual stock price movements throughout April 2026, particularly any announcements regarding mission success rates, customer contracts, or broader market shifts affecting small-cap aerospace stocks. Investors and analysts monitoring this outcome would track quarterly earnings reports, launch schedule updates, and sector-wide valuation trends leading up to the resolution date.
- ›Rocket Lab's historical volatility and trading patterns relative to the $56 level during comparable periods
- ›Broader aerospace and defense sector performance trends and their correlation with small-cap contractor valuations
- ›Announced launch schedules and mission success rates that could impact market confidence in company operations
- ›Quarterly earnings reports released before April 2026 and their effects on investor sentiment
- ›Market conditions for early-stage space technology companies and venture-backed aerospace firms in early 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (86% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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