When will Project Helix be released
Leader sits at 42% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 42%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
May 31, 2027
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
42¢
December 31, 2026
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will Project Helix be released
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that Project Helix will be released by a specific future date, currently priced at 51% on the leading contract. The probability reflects relatively high uncertainty, with a close runner-up contract also trading near parity. Key factors driving the current level include the project's development timeline, any recent public statements or milestones from the team behind Helix, and broader market sentiment about its feasibility. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be either an official release announcement or the passage of the deadline specified in the contract terms. Movement in this probability would likely depend on substantive updates about development progress, revised timelines from project leadership, or technical achievements that either accelerate or delay expected completion.
- ›Official announcements or timeline updates from Project Helix leadership regarding release dates
- ›Evidence of technical progress or milestones achieved in recent months
- ›Proximity to the contract's resolution deadline and any extension signals from developers
- ›Comparison of current development status against stated roadmap objectives
- ›Market sentiment shifts based on competing project releases or industry developments affecting similar initiatives
What moved the line
- May 6May 31, 2027↓9pp51→42¢ · Polymarket
- May 6December 31, 2026↓9pp51→42¢ · Polymarket
- May 2December 31, 2026↑5pp46→51¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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