SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 20 outcomes20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 4 min ago

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27

Leader sits at 25% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

25%

Baltimore Ravens

runner-up 25¢leader 25¢

Outcomes

20

winner-take-all

Runner-up

25¢

Carolina Panthers

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

not derived

Venue

Polymarket

20 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBaltimore Ravens: 34% (9 days, 6 points)Baltimore Ravens: 34% on 2026-04-28Carolina Panthers: 26% (9 days, 8 points)Carolina Panthers: 26% on 2026-05-01Cincinnati Bengals: 20% (9 days, 4 points)Cincinnati Bengals: 20% on 2026-04-23
Baltimore Ravens34¢Carolina Panthers26¢Cincinnati Bengals20¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 9d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27

20 contracts$0
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Baltimore Ravens

0x1ba8e8…6612

25¢+9pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Cleveland Browns

0xc277c3…5b59

25¢+12pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Chicago Bears

0x4d287a…5095

25¢+1pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Buffalo Bills

0xe00016…3e4b

25¢4pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Atlanta Falcons

0x7cc426…ac14

25¢+1pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Tennessee Titans

0x15fdf9…6b9e

25¢+1pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Seattle Seahawks

0x7c74d0…4e4a

25¢6pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Pittsburgh Steelers

0x257958…ce31

25¢±0$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Kansas City Chiefs

0x8c09a1…bf02

25¢1pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Indianapolis Colts

0xfe6e05…8048

25¢1pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Green Bay Packers

0x7e9ea0…b891

25¢+7pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Denver Broncos

0xc3423b…defa

25¢1pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Arizona Cardinals

0xe9a929…adaf

25¢2pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: New York Giants

0x976927…3f50

25¢1pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: New England Patriots

0x9855fb…f874

25¢+1pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Miami Dolphins

0xdb182e…5369

25¢±0$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Los Angeles Chargers

0xf0f82e…2233

25¢+9pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Dallas Cowboys

0x16bc62…b0fb

25¢+1pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Cincinnati Bengals

0x19872f…87bb

25¢5pp$0P

Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?: Carolina Panthers

0x7a6d98…654d

25¢+1pp$0P

Analysis

This represents a modest 26% probability that Brandon Aiyuk will play for the Baltimore Ravens in the 2026-27 season. The market shows five teams tied at identical odds, suggesting substantial uncertainty about Aiyuk's destination rather than strong consensus on any single outcome. The relatively low probability reflects that multiple teams are viewed as plausible landing spots, with no clear frontrunner emerging. Resolution hinges on whether Aiyuk remains with his current team, the Arizona Cardinals, or becomes available through trade or free agency before the 2026-27 season begins. Key catalysts include his contract status, performance during the 2025-26 season, team salary-cap constraints, and front-office decisions across the NFL regarding quarterback needs and receiver valuations.

  • Five distinct outcomes currently priced identically at 26%, indicating the market assigns roughly equal probability to Ravens, Titans, Steelers, Bears, and Commanders destinations
  • Aiyuk's status with the Arizona Cardinals (his current team) is not listed among the top five outcomes, suggesting market participants view relocation as more likely than retention
  • Zero trading volume across all major contracts in the past 24 hours indicates minimal recent information flow or market conviction about imminent moves
  • The 2026 offseason free agency and trade deadline will determine whether Aiyuk becomes available and which teams actively pursue him
  • Contracts for outcomes beyond the top five are presumably available at lower prices, meaning the market perceives a meaningful tail probability of other destinations

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.