Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027
Leader sits at 55% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Beyond Meat
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
Workhorse
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$38
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: Beyond Meat
0x3b0a46…6e6e
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: Lucid
0xfb037f…1a37
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: Carvana
0x590780…75e0
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: Workhorse
0x28c242…8f97
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: C3.ai
0x90ec7b…c96b
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: MicroStrategy
0xef4450…a42b
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: Perplexity AI
0x26e8d0…7083
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: Lovable
0x3b1482…a5e7
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: Rivian
0xe33fc1…1885
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: Anthropic
0x7b0424…5317
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: JetBlue Airways
0x1153d3…dc40
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: SoundHound AI
0x90e31c…7e5d
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: Xerox
0xb40d75…191f
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?: OpenAI
0x78317a…9045
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that at least one major company will file for bankruptcy before the end of 2026. The leading contracts instead track acquisition activity, suggesting traders may be pricing in M&A consolidation as a potential outcome for distressed or underperforming firms. The current 54% level indicates meaningful but not overwhelming concern about corporate insolvencies in the near term. Key factors driving this assessment include macroeconomic conditions, interest rate environment, and sector-specific pressures. The probability would shift upward if major earnings disappointments emerge or credit conditions tighten; it would decline if economic growth remains stable and refinancing costs remain manageable. Resolution will depend on actual bankruptcy filings through December 2026, with no single catalyst but rather cumulative corporate performance data throughout the remainder of the year.
- ›Current macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policy on interest rates affect refinancing costs for leveraged companies
- ›Sector-specific stress indicators: energy (BP contract at 23¢ suggests acquisition risk), software (Zoom, GitLab, Snapchat), and cloud infrastructure (Nebius) face distinct pressures
- ›Liquidity conditions and credit spreads for investment-grade and high-yield debt; widening spreads historically correlate with bankruptcy risk
- ›Trading volume concentration: top contract (23¢ for BP) has $2,325 24h volume versus thin volume on smaller positions, indicating low conviction in specific names
- ›Timeline constraint: only 7 months remain until end-2026; bankruptcy requires either immediate distress or rapid deterioration rather than gradual decline
What moved the line
- May 6C3.ai↓26pp48→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Beyond Meat↑10pp53→63¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Lovable↓10pp18→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Perplexity AI↓9pp46→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Perplexity AI↑7pp33→40¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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