Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30
Leader sits at 15% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Overpass
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Mirage
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$161
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30
Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30?: Nuke
0xbd7e6a…9d7c
Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30?: Dust 2
0xd52a47…071e
Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30?: Inferno
0x31d66e…3074
Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30?: Ancient
0x561855…473c
Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30?: Overpass
0xfd34eb…f755
Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30?: Mirage
0x032641…bea4
Analysis
This market estimates a 35% likelihood that Valve will remove at least one map from its competitive pool by June 30, 2026. The current probability reflects limited recent map removals from Valve's active rotation, as the company typically maintains stability in the map pool to preserve competitive integrity and player investment. The main factors pushing this probability upward are community feedback on underperforming maps, balance issues, or technical problems that could necessitate removal. The biggest uncertainty revolves around Valve's map management philosophy and whether any pending balance patches or competitive season changes might trigger a removal decision. A scheduled competitive season update or announcement from Valve about map pool changes would directly resolve much of this uncertainty. Current trading volume remains relatively low, suggesting limited conviction across traders.
- ›Valve has not removed maps from the active competitive pool in recent seasons, suggesting institutional resistance to removal outside extraordinary circumstances
- ›Community sentiment and pro-player feedback on specific maps directly influence Valve's curation decisions
- ›Scheduled competitive season patches or map pool announcements between now and June 30 would be the primary catalyst for resolution clarity
- ›Technical exploits, balance issues, or performance problems with existing maps could trigger emergency removal
- ›Valve's historical track record shows preference for iterative balance changes over map removal as a policy response
What moved the line
- May 6Overpass↓18pp35→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Overpass↑14pp8→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Overpass↑13pp22→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Nuke↑12pp10→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Nuke↓9pp18→9¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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