Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026
Leader sits at 69% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Avengers: Doomsday
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Spread
44pp
contested
24h volume
$42
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
217 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday
0xa05d8a…60c4
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?: Toy Story 5
0xbaf6c4…6089
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
0xc92669…3ab2
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?: Dune: Messiah
0x5416ff…376e
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day
0x5e38b7…555a
What moved the line
- May 22Spider-Man: Brand New Day↑7pp14→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 25Toy Story 5↑6pp4→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 26The Super Mario Galaxy Movie↑5pp9→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 25The Super Mario Galaxy Movie↑3pp6→9¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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