Will Kehlani have above 21000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) on Luminate during April 24, 2026 - April 30, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
18 contracts
Closes
Sep 6, 2026
45 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 23% of their title tokens — “Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above” vs “Will Don’t Look Down by Rod Wave have above”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above
Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 70000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week?: Above 70K
KXPUREALBUMS-MUS26JUL30-70K
Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 30000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week?: Above 30K
KXPUREALBUMS-MUS26JUL30-30K
Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 20000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K
KXPUREALBUMS-MUS26JUL30-20K
Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 40000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week?: Above 40K
KXPUREALBUMS-MUS26JUL30-40K
Cluster 2
Will Don’t Look Down by Rod Wave have above
Will Don’t Look Down by Rod Wave have above 5000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the August 28, 2026 - September 03, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K
KXPUREALBUMS-DON26SEP03-5K
Will Don’t Look Down by Rod Wave have above 3000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the August 28, 2026 - September 03, 2026 tracking week?: Above 3K
KXPUREALBUMS-DON26SEP03-3K
Will Don’t Look Down by Rod Wave have above 4000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the August 28, 2026 - September 03, 2026 tracking week?: Above 4K
KXPUREALBUMS-DON26SEP03-4K
Cluster 3
Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above
Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above 9000 Pure Album Sales during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 9K
KXPUREALBUMS-OHY26JUL23-9K
Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above 27000 Pure Album Sales during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 27K
KXPUREALBUMS-OHY26JUL23-27K
Cluster 4
Will SET IN STONE by Rick Ross have above
Will SET IN STONE by Rick Ross have above 6000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 6K
KXPUREALBUMS-SET26JUL23-6K
Will SET IN STONE by Rick Ross have above 3000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 3K
KXPUREALBUMS-SET26JUL23-3K
Cluster 5
Will WILD by KATSEYE have above
Will WILD by KATSEYE have above 100000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the August 14, 2026 - August 20, 2026 tracking week?: Above 100K
KXPUREALBUMS-WILD26AUG20-100K
Will WILD by KATSEYE have above 80000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the August 14, 2026 - August 20, 2026 tracking week?: Above 80K
KXPUREALBUMS-WILD26AUG20-80K
Cluster 6
Will Ariana Grande have above 1
Will Ariana Grande have above 130K Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) on Luminate during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week?: Above 130K
KXPUREALBUMS-PET26AUG06-130K
Will Ariana Grande have above 140K Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) on Luminate during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week?: Above 140K
KXPUREALBUMS-PET26AUG06-140K
Cluster 7
will apop by tyla have above 5000 pure album sales (aka product sales) during the july 24, 2026 - july 30, 2026 tracking week
Cluster 8
Will Reality Awaits by The Strokes have above 10000 Pure Album Sales during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week
Cluster 9
Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 200000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week
Analysis
This contract assesses whether Kehlani will achieve above 21,000 pure album sales on Luminate during the week of April 24-30, 2026. The 96% probability reflects confidence in this outcome, though it derives from limited Kalshi trading activity ($2,858 in 24-hour volume). Key drivers include Kehlani's recent release schedule, typical weekly sales patterns for her releases, and competitive positioning relative to other artists in the same period. The contract resolves when Luminate publishes official sales data for that specific week, typically within 1-2 weeks after the chart period closes. Traders are pricing in a high likelihood that Kehlani's pure album sales will exceed the 21,000 threshold, suggesting either strong recent commercial performance or an anticipated release. The gap between this contract (21K threshold) and the 18K threshold contract (both trading in the 90s) indicates market confidence across multiple sales levels.
- ›Kehlani's pure album sales in preceding weeks and release dates relative to April 24-30 period
- ›Luminate's official reported sales data for that specific chart week when published
- ›Competitive album releases by other artists during April 24-30 that could affect market attention
- ›Whether Kehlani had a new album, single, or promotional campaign driving sales during that period
- ›Historical variance in Kehlani's weekly pure album sales to establish typical baseline performance
What moved the line
- Jul 18Above 10K↑54pp25→79¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Above 9K↑35pp19→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Above 9K↓26pp36→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Above 3K↓23pp38→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Above 5K↑21pp51→72¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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