Will Kehlani have above 21000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) on Luminate during April 24, 2026 - April 30, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$238
18 contracts
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
63 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will BITCH by Lizzo have above” vs “Will DIRTY BLONDE by Bebe Rexha have above”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will BITCH by Lizzo have above
Will BITCH by Lizzo have above 10000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K
KXPUREALBUMS-BIT26JUN11-10K
Will BITCH by Lizzo have above 80000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 80K
KXPUREALBUMS-BIT26JUN11-80K
Will BITCH by Lizzo have above 70000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 70K
KXPUREALBUMS-BIT26JUN11-70K
Will BITCH by Lizzo have above 60000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 60K
KXPUREALBUMS-BIT26JUN11-60K
Will BITCH by Lizzo have above 50000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 50K
KXPUREALBUMS-BIT26JUN11-50K
Will BITCH by Lizzo have above 30000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 30K
KXPUREALBUMS-BIT26JUN11-30K
Will BITCH by Lizzo have above 20000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K
KXPUREALBUMS-BIT26JUN11-20K
Cluster 2
Will DIRTY BLONDE by Bebe Rexha have above
Will DIRTY BLONDE by Bebe Rexha have above 6000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 12, 2026 - June 18, 2026 tracking week?: Above 6K
KXPUREALBUMS-DIR26JUN18B-6K
Will DIRTY BLONDE by Bebe Rexha have above 21000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 12, 2026 - June 18, 2026 tracking week?: Above 21K
KXPUREALBUMS-DIR26JUN18B-21K
Will DIRTY BLONDE by Bebe Rexha have above 18000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 12, 2026 - June 18, 2026 tracking week?: Above 18K
KXPUREALBUMS-DIR26JUN18B-18K
Will DIRTY BLONDE by Bebe Rexha have above 15000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 12, 2026 - June 18, 2026 tracking week?: Above 15K
KXPUREALBUMS-DIR26JUN18B-15K
Will DIRTY BLONDE by Bebe Rexha have above 12000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 12, 2026 - June 18, 2026 tracking week?: Above 12K
KXPUREALBUMS-DIR26JUN18B-12K
Cluster 3
Will Cry Baby by Vince Staples have above
Will Cry Baby by Vince Staples have above 3000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 3K
KXPUREALBUMS-CRY26JUN11-3K
Will Cry Baby by Vince Staples have above 9000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 9K
KXPUREALBUMS-CRY26JUN11-9K
Will Cry Baby by Vince Staples have above 12000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 12K
KXPUREALBUMS-CRY26JUN11-12K
Cluster 4
Will Ariana Grande have above 1
Will Ariana Grande have above 110K Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) on Luminate during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week?: Above 110K
KXPUREALBUMS-PET26AUG06-110K
Will Ariana Grande have above 100K Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) on Luminate during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week?: Above 100K
KXPUREALBUMS-PET26AUG06-100K
Cluster 5
Will Do That Again by Malcolm Todd have above 27000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week
Analysis
This contract assesses whether Kehlani will achieve above 21,000 pure album sales on Luminate during the week of April 24-30, 2026. The 96% probability reflects confidence in this outcome, though it derives from limited Kalshi trading activity ($2,858 in 24-hour volume). Key drivers include Kehlani's recent release schedule, typical weekly sales patterns for her releases, and competitive positioning relative to other artists in the same period. The contract resolves when Luminate publishes official sales data for that specific week, typically within 1-2 weeks after the chart period closes. Traders are pricing in a high likelihood that Kehlani's pure album sales will exceed the 21,000 threshold, suggesting either strong recent commercial performance or an anticipated release. The gap between this contract (21K threshold) and the 18K threshold contract (both trading in the 90s) indicates market confidence across multiple sales levels.
- ›Kehlani's pure album sales in preceding weeks and release dates relative to April 24-30 period
- ›Luminate's official reported sales data for that specific chart week when published
- ›Competitive album releases by other artists during April 24-30 that could affect market attention
- ›Whether Kehlani had a new album, single, or promotional campaign driving sales during that period
- ›Historical variance in Kehlani's weekly pure album sales to establish typical baseline performance
What moved the line
- Jun 1Above 3K↓32pp66→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Above 6K↑26pp49→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Above 12K↑23pp20→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Above 15K↑16pp4→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Above 10K↓15pp25→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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