Who will Alexander Volkanovski fight next
Leader sits at 88% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Movsar Evloev
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
45¢
Aljamain Sterling
Spread
43pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Alexander Volkanovski fight next
Who will Alexander Volkanovski fight next?: Aljamain Sterling
0x26f9e0…504e
Who will Alexander Volkanovski fight next?: Lerone Murphy
0x5b5766…44fd
Who will Alexander Volkanovski fight next?: Arnold Allen
0xc08fb1…66c8
Who will Alexander Volkanovski fight next?: Jean Silva
0x6c0035…e133
Who will Alexander Volkanovski fight next?: Movsar Evloev
0x540392…826c
Analysis
The 85% probability indicates high confidence that Alexander Volkanovski will fight a specific opponent next, based on aggregated betting markets. This level reflects the UFC's typical timeline for scheduling main-event fighters and suggests the opponent is likely already determined or being finalized by promotion officials. The probability could shift based on injury announcements, contract disputes, or unexpected fighter retirements. The main driver of current certainty appears to be recent statements from UFC management or Volkanovski's camp. Resolution will occur when the UFC officially announces Volkanovski's next opponent, typically done via press release or social media. Until then, uncertainty remains around whether scheduling delays or fighter availability changes might alter the prediction.
- ›Official UFC announcement of opponent name and fight date would directly resolve the market
- ›Any injury report or medical suspension affecting Volkanovski or top contenders would likely decrease confidence in current prediction
- ›Recent public statements from UFC president Dana White, Volkanovski, or other fighters indicating specific matchup plans influence current pricing
- ›Typical UFC scheduling patterns suggest announcement likely within 1-3 months based on standard promotion cycles
- ›Competing contract negotiations or fighter retirements affecting opponent availability could shift probabilities downward
What moved the line
- May 6Lerone Murphy↓34pp42→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Jean Silva↓17pp33→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Aljamain Sterling↓9pp44→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Jean Silva↓9pp37→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Aljamain Sterling↓8pp35→27¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.