Will all hitters combined record 2+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
14 contracts
Closes
Dec 3, 2026
74 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will all hitters combined record
Will all hitters combined record 1+ 40+ home runs and 40+ steals seasons?: 1+ players with a 40+ home runs and 40+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-264040-1
Will all hitters combined record 15+ inside-the-park home runs?: 15+ inside-the-park home runs
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-26ITPHR-15
Will all hitters combined record 3+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 3+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-3
Will all hitters combined record 5+ cycles?: 5+ cycles
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-26CYCLE-AH-5
Will all hitters combined record 16+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 16+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-16
Will all hitters combined record 15+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 15+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-15
Will all hitters combined record 14+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 14+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-14
Will all hitters combined record 3+ 40+ home runs and 40+ steals seasons?: 3+ players with a 40+ home runs and 40+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-264040-3
Will all hitters combined record 7+ cycles?: 7+ cycles
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-26CYCLE-AH-7
Will all hitters combined record 6+ cycles?: 6+ cycles
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-26CYCLE-AH-6
Will all hitters combined record 18+ inside-the-park home runs?: 18+ inside-the-park home runs
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-26ITPHR-18
Will all hitters combined record 16+ inside-the-park home runs?: 16+ inside-the-park home runs
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-26ITPHR-16
Cluster 2
Will all pitchers combined record
Analysis
This contract asks whether at least two players will each hit three or more home runs in a single game during a specific period. The 47% probability reflects a middle-ground assessment of this relatively rare occurrence. The likelihood depends on the number of games played and the composition of active hitters—more games and stronger offensive lineups increase the probability, while injuries to power hitters or rule changes affecting home run frequency would decrease it. The primary resolution driver is the completion of the specified timeframe with final statistics, which would provide definitive data on whether the threshold was met.
- ›Historical frequency of 3+ home run games varies by season; recent MLB seasons show 1-3 instances annually
- ›The time window specified for this contract determines how many games occur and therefore the probability of observing multiple instances
- ›Roster composition and player availability directly affect offensive output; mid-season trades or injuries to power hitters materially change expectations
- ›Weather conditions and ballpark dimensions influence home run rates across a season
- ›Rule changes or equipment modifications affecting ball liveliness would shift baseline home run production
What moved the line
- Sep 1715+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game↓32pp92→60¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 195+ cycles↓21pp41→20¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1818+ inside-the-park home runs↑18pp7→25¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1915+ inside-the-park home runs↓16pp52→36¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 173+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season↑16pp6→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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