Will all hitters combined record 2+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 52% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
52%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$292
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 3, 2026
181 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will all hitters combined record
Will all hitters combined record 7+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 7+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-7
Will all hitters combined record 5+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 5+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-5
Will all hitters combined record 1+ 40+ home runs and 40+ steals seasons?: 1+ players with a 40+ home runs and 40+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-264040-1
Will all hitters combined record 6+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 6+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-6
Will all hitters combined record 2+ cycles?: 2+ cycles
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-26CYCLE-AH-2
Will all hitters combined record 8+ inside-the-park home runs?: 8+ inside-the-park home runs
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-26ITPHR-8
Will all hitters combined record 4+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 4+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-4
Will all hitters combined record 3+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 3+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-3
Will all hitters combined record 2+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 2+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-2
Will all hitters combined record 10+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 10+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-10
Will all hitters combined record 9+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 9+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-9
Will all hitters combined record 8+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 8+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-8
Will all hitters combined record 7+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 7+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-7
Will all hitters combined record 6+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 6+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-6
Will all hitters combined record 5+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 5+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-5
Will all hitters combined record 4+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 4+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-4
Will all hitters combined record 3+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 3+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-3
Will all hitters combined record 2+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 2+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-2
Will all hitters combined record 1+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 1+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-1
Cluster 2
Will all pitchers combined record 5+ immaculate innings
Will all pitchers combined record 5+ immaculate innings?: 5+ immaculate innings
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-26IMMACULATE-AP-5
Analysis
This contract resolves positively if MLB players combined hit 3 or more home runs in a single game on 2+ separate occasions during the 2026 season. At 43% probability, the market suggests this is roughly even odds. The frequency of multi-home run games depends on offensive talent distribution and park effects across all 30 teams. A season with strong offensive power hitters increases the likelihood, while increased strikeout rates or more defensive-friendly ballpark conditions would lower it. The outcome will be determined by the final 2026 MLB regular season statistics, with full clarity available after October 2026 when season records are finalized.
- ›Baseline historical rate: In recent MLB seasons (2022-2025), players hitting 3+ home runs in a single game occurs roughly 5-8 times per season league-wide, so 2+ instances is well below historical norms
- ›Offensive environment: The 2026 season's overall home run volume, influenced by ball composition, weather patterns, and league-wide batting approach, will materially affect this outcome
- ›Star player availability: Injury status of elite power hitters throughout 2026 could significantly impact whether any player achieves the necessary single-game performance
- ›Park factors: Specific ballpark dimensions and environmental conditions at teams' home stadiums affect home run frequency for their respective rosters
- ›Completion date: Full resolution depends on 2026 MLB regular season conclusion in late September/early October 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 32+ cycles↑5pp62→67¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 37+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game↓4pp63→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season↑4pp76→80¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 32+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season↓4pp80→76¢ · Kalshi
- May 292+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game↓4pp98→94¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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