Will all hitters combined record 2+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
Leader sits at 96% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
10+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
1+ players with a 30+ home r
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$349
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 3, 2026
133 days
Venue
Kalshi
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will all hitters combined record
Will all hitters combined record 1+ 40+ home runs and 40+ steals seasons?: 1+ players with a 40+ home runs and 40+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-264040-1
Will all hitters combined record 3+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 3+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-3
Will all hitters combined record 14+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 14+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-14
Will all hitters combined record 12+ inside-the-park home runs?: 12+ inside-the-park home runs
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-26ITPHR-12
Will all hitters combined record 11+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 11+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-11
Will all hitters combined record 13+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 13+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-13
Will all hitters combined record 11+ inside-the-park home runs?: 11+ inside-the-park home runs
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-26ITPHR-11
Will all hitters combined record 15+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 15+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-15
Will all hitters combined record 10+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 10+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-10
Will all hitters combined record 9+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 9+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-9
Will all hitters combined record 8+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 8+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-8
Will all hitters combined record 6+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 6+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-6
Will all hitters combined record 5+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 5+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-5
Will all hitters combined record 4+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 4+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-4
Will all hitters combined record 2+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 2+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-2
Will all hitters combined record 1+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 1+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263030-1
Will all hitters combined record 12+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 12+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game
KXMLBSTATCOUNT-263HR-AH-12
Analysis
This contract asks whether at least two players will each hit three or more home runs in a single game during a specific period. The 47% probability reflects a middle-ground assessment of this relatively rare occurrence. The likelihood depends on the number of games played and the composition of active hitters—more games and stronger offensive lineups increase the probability, while injuries to power hitters or rule changes affecting home run frequency would decrease it. The primary resolution driver is the completion of the specified timeframe with final statistics, which would provide definitive data on whether the threshold was met.
- ›Historical frequency of 3+ home run games varies by season; recent MLB seasons show 1-3 instances annually
- ›The time window specified for this contract determines how many games occur and therefore the probability of observing multiple instances
- ›Roster composition and player availability directly affect offensive output; mid-season trades or injuries to power hitters materially change expectations
- ›Weather conditions and ballpark dimensions influence home run rates across a season
- ›Rule changes or equipment modifications affecting ball liveliness would shift baseline home run production
What moved the line
- Jul 1811+ inside-the-park home runs↓52pp63→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 2111+ inside-the-park home runs↑30pp46→76¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 2211+ inside-the-park home runs↓27pp76→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 1911+ inside-the-park home runs↑26pp11→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 2213+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game↑10pp53→63¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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