Who will Beyoncé wear at the Met Gala
Leader sits at 56% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Balmain & Olivier Rousteing
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Versace
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 4, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Beyoncé wear at the Met Gala
Who will Beyoncé wear at the Met Gala?: Balmain & Olivier Rousteing
0x921f6a…16a8
Who will Beyoncé wear at the Met Gala?: Gucci
0xb6703e…b7f1
Who will Beyoncé wear at the Met Gala?: Valentino
0x6f82a1…4b6e
Who will Beyoncé wear at the Met Gala?: Dolce & Gabbana
0x4b5a10…37ef
Who will Beyoncé wear at the Met Gala?: Roberto Cavalli
0x32b271…d771
Who will Beyoncé wear at the Met Gala?: Alexander McQueen
0x8edcbc…8a72
Who will Beyoncé wear at the Met Gala?: Loewe
0x6bc0fd…d96f
Who will Beyoncé wear at the Met Gala?: Schiaparelli
0xc38fbb…19a8
Who will Beyoncé wear at the Met Gala?: Tiffany & Co.
0x3a3258…5a20
Who will Beyoncé wear at the Met Gala?: Versace
0x2a39fd…a3bd
Analysis
The current 58% probability reflects market confidence that a leading fashion designer will dress Beyoncé at the 2024 Met Gala. The prediction aggregates trading data from multiple contracts, with Versace, Roberto Cavalli, and Tiffany & Co. each trading around 49-50 cents, suggesting near-parity among top contenders. Uncertainty stems from Beyoncé's unpredictable designer choices and the inherent difficulty of predicting red-carpet appearances before official confirmation. The probability will resolve when Beyoncé either arrives at the Met Gala or makes a public announcement about her outfit. Historically, A-list attendees sometimes surprise with unconventional selections or collaborations not previously discussed publicly. The lack of recent trading volume ($0 in 24-hour volume on most contracts) suggests limited new information has emerged, and sentiment may be relatively stable absent recent reports about designer partnerships or theme-related hints from Beyoncé's team.
- ›No official announcement from Beyoncé or fashion houses has been made; probability depends on speculation and historical patterns of her designer choices
- ›Trading volume is effectively zero across most contracts, indicating thin markets and limited participant confidence in distinguishing between top contenders
- ›The top three designer contracts (Versace, Roberto Cavalli, Tiffany & Co.) are trading within 1 cent of each other, suggesting the market views them as nearly equivalent in likelihood
- ›Beyoncé's past Met Gala appearances have featured different designers (Givenchy in 2016, Olivier Rousteing in 2020), indicating no predictable pattern of designer loyalty
- ›The resolution date depends on the Met Gala's occurrence and Beyoncé's attendance confirmation, introducing calendar-dependent uncertainty
What moved the line
- May 2Loewe↓15pp55→40¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Balmain & Olivier Rousteing↑6pp51→57¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Roberto Cavalli↓5pp49→44¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Roberto Cavalli↑4pp44→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Balmain & Olivier Rousteing↑3pp48→51¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.