Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition
Leader sits at 69% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Paramount
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
None by June 30, 2027
Spread
56pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$889
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2027
417 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition
Analysis
This 72% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Warner Bros. will complete its acquisition, indicating strong confidence in deal closure. The high probability likely reflects favorable regulatory signals, financing certainty, or recent positive announcements about the transaction's progress. Conversely, factors that could lower this probability include regulatory concerns, financing complications, or major corporate developments affecting either party. The resolution will depend on whether the acquisition formally closes through to completion, with key milestones including regulatory approval timelines, shareholder votes, and any financing condition satisfaction. Market participants are pricing in deal completion as the more likely outcome, though the 17% runner-up position and 28% implied failure rate suggest meaningful deal risk remains.
- ›Regulatory approval status and any outstanding conditions from antitrust or sector-specific regulators
- ›Financing commitments and debt market conditions that enable deal completion
- ›Shareholder votes or required approvals from both Warner Bros. and acquiring entity
- ›Material changes to either company's financial performance or strategic direction since deal announcement
- ›Contractual termination clauses, reverse termination fees, or walk-away rights triggered by specific events
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (69% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.